 &MODEL
 NLIST   =           1,
 NSTEP   =        2000,
 EPSI    =  1.0000000E-07,
 WGHT    =   1.000000    ,
 NOBS    =         120,
 NVAXZ   =           9,
 NVAX    =           4,
 NORDER  =           2,
 NVAZ    =           0,
 NLAMZ   =           0,
 NLAMY   =           1,
 NLAMX   =           3,
 NSCALE  =           1,
 NEXPY   =           0,
 NRES    =           0,
 NCOR    =           0,
 NCOV    =           0,
 VARNAME = BC4+A1A2P,
 NVARIANT        =           4
 /
 &AUTOCOR
 RHO     = 2*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 PI      = 2*0.990000000000000       ,
 NTPI    = 2*1,
 MATFILE = R1.in                                                                           R2.in                                     
                                       
 /
 &YBOXCOX
 VLY     =  0.000000000000000E+000,
 NTLY    =           1,
 NUMLXY  =           0
 /
 &XBOXCOX
 NUMX    =           1,           2,           3,           7, 46*0,
 NUMLX   = 2*1,           2,           3, 46*0,
 VLX     = 10*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 NTLX    = 3*1, 7*0
 /
 &YXZDATA
 YXZFILE = CanadaNew.in                                                                    ,
 YXZFMT  = (5e15.5)                                                                        
 /

VARIABLE       MINIMUM         MEAN          MAXIMUM   NULL OBS.      SCALE
DEPENDENT
TOTFLOW     0.2577000D+04  0.1476588D+06  0.2736000D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
INDEPENDENT
POP         0.8591300D+05  0.5297039D+06  0.2802800D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
REVE        0.3698300D+04  0.4258776D+04  0.4808200D+04     0     0.1000000D-02
LANGFR      0.5600000D+01  0.7329333D+02  0.9990000D+02     0     0.1000000D+00
UTIL4       0.9282900D+00  0.3422152D+01  0.2083700D+02     0     0.1000000D+00
CONSTANT    0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01     0     0.1000000D+01


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL4       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.2855D+03  0.4912D+04 -0.1517D+06 -0.3772D+07

REVE         0.3503D-02  0.1000D+01  0.1721D+02 -0.5315D+03 -0.1321D+05

LANGFR       0.2036D-03  0.5811D-01  0.1000D+01 -0.3089D+02 -0.7678D+03

UTIL4       -0.6591D-05 -0.1882D-02 -0.3238D-01  0.1000D+01  0.2486D+02

CONSTANT    -0.2651D-06 -0.7568D-04 -0.1302D-02  0.4022D-01  0.1000D+01


INITIAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                                                                DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)


POP           X1  0.1630768D+01  0.1751121D+00      9.3127080 -0.8225514D-10  0.4545885D+00      1.6307680
                                                                              0.4272119D+00      1.6307680

REVE          X1  0.3742802D+01  0.2089819D+01      1.7909693  0.1364513D-09  0.1297691D+03      3.7428017
                                                                              0.1179378D+00      3.7428017

LANGFR        X2  0.1108442D+01  0.1760515D+00      6.2961206  0.1725139D-09  0.2233098D+04      1.1084417
                                                                              0.2880351D-01      1.1084417

UTIL4         X3 -0.1598467D+01  0.1572062D+00    -10.1679623 -0.1373677D-09 -0.6897058D+05     -1.5984671
                                                                             -0.1438440D+01     -1.5984671

CONSTANT      X0 -0.1161212D+02  0.3058466D+01     -3.7967140  0.9404237D-10 -0.1714632D+07    -11.6121222
                                                                             -0.1575763D+01    -11.6121222

VAR(W)            0.1123011D+01  0.1449801D+00      7.7459667  0.0000000D+00

INITIAL VALUES
 
RHO1           0.0000000D+00
RHO2           0.0000000D+00
PI1            0.9900000D+00
PI2            0.9900000D+00
 
LAM(Y)         0.0000000D+00
LAM(X1)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X2)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X3)        0.0000000D+00


LOG-LIKELIHOOD =  0.2108183D+03

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.4552
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.4363

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.5217
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.5050

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0000
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1356998D+00

MEAN of residual W                  =  0.8800523D-12
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1123011D+01
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.2077056D+01   Upper Bound =  0.2077056D+01




initialization cards for control routine follow - -  id card - no. parameters , no. steps , step size 
minimization tolerance - starting values of parameters - relative uncertainties of parameters (error estimates) -  
and starting direction  (relative parameter increments for 1st step)
identification line
         8      2000   0.1E+01   0.1E-06
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.45951E+01  0.45951E+01  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00
  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00

first entry to fcn , parameters of current step follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2108182720D+03  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    10  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2481958301D+03  0.47900D+00  0.50800D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01 -0.23846D+00  0.19412D+00  0.45030D-01 -0.27017D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    16  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2506029869D+03  0.57703D+00  0.59619D+00  0.45952D+01  0.45952D+01 -0.21679D+00  0.22836D+00  0.50558D-01 -0.31343D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    20  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2587043776D+03  0.59958D+00  0.55425D+00  0.45955D+01  0.45952D+01 -0.10325D+00  0.64341D+00  0.10810D+00 -0.86668D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    25  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2652499662D+03  0.72448D+00  0.42174D+00  0.45966D+01  0.45949D+01 -0.31947D-01  0.49243D+00  0.16401D+00 -0.15029D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    29  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2664081128D+03  0.68979D+00  0.45830D+00  0.45970D+01  0.45949D+01  0.11750D-02  0.43727D+00  0.16476D+00 -0.16702D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    33  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2681318035D+03  0.78713D+00  0.39827D+00  0.46078D+01  0.45983D+01  0.67465D-03  0.41192D+00 -0.30153D+00 -0.18951D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    36  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2686234766D+03  0.81887D+00  0.38019D+00  0.46482D+01  0.46255D+01 -0.13513D-01  0.34496D+00 -0.97672D-01 -0.17845D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    38  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2686456965D+03  0.81241D+00  0.38525D+00  0.46723D+01  0.46421D+01 -0.16273D-01  0.33520D+00 -0.16032D+00 -0.17757D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    41  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2686681456D+03  0.81940D+00  0.38448D+00  0.47758D+01  0.47105D+01 -0.16484D-01  0.34086D+00 -0.15494D+00 -0.17402D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    43  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2686840539D+03  0.82791D+00  0.37911D+00  0.49226D+01  0.48112D+01 -0.13258D-01  0.33053D+00 -0.16054D+00 -0.17208D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    50  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2689098960D+03  0.86644D+00  0.35061D+00  0.76667D+01  0.67443D+01 -0.22640D-01  0.34807D+00 -0.24420D+00 -0.68034D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    54  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2690031890D+03  0.86807D+00  0.35049D+00  0.88379D+01  0.75681D+01 -0.24624D-01  0.33973D+00 -0.24317D+00 -0.21206D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    57  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691041012D+03  0.84684D+00  0.36649D+00  0.87501D+01  0.75058D+01 -0.21704D-01  0.31971D+00 -0.18034D+00 -0.23011D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    60  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691092409D+03  0.84546D+00  0.36645D+00  0.89403D+01  0.76415D+01 -0.19934D-01  0.31862D+00 -0.17120D+00 -0.16227D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    62  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691093875D+03  0.84440D+00  0.36704D+00  0.89350D+01  0.76394D+01 -0.19931D-01  0.31982D+00 -0.17369D+00 -0.16464D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    64  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691094140D+03  0.84411D+00  0.36716D+00  0.89432D+01  0.76505D+01 -0.20058D-01  0.31974D+00 -0.17240D+00 -0.16402D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    70  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691112492D+03  0.84287D+00  0.36793D+00  0.10083D+02  0.90535D+01 -0.19955D-01  0.31764D+00 -0.17965D+00 -0.17970D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    73  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691123386D+03  0.84463D+00  0.36690D+00  0.11108D+02  0.10294D+02 -0.19940D-01  0.32054D+00 -0.17221D+00 -0.17424D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    76  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691124866D+03  0.84410D+00  0.36715D+00  0.11772D+02  0.11093D+02 -0.20067D-01  0.31945D+00 -0.17388D+00 -0.16683D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    78  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691125860D+03  0.84429D+00  0.36711D+00  0.12673D+02  0.12201D+02 -0.19911D-01  0.32004D+00 -0.17356D+00 -0.17704D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    80  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691126220D+03  0.84430D+00  0.36706D+00  0.13605D+02  0.13326D+02 -0.20020D-01  0.31987D+00 -0.17345D+00 -0.17020D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    82  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691126340D+03  0.84424D+00  0.36711D+00  0.14399D+02  0.14295D+02 -0.19949D-01  0.31990D+00 -0.17352D+00 -0.17421D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    84  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691126393D+03  0.84430D+00  0.36707D+00  0.15363D+02  0.15464D+02 -0.19996D-01  0.31991D+00 -0.17354D+00 -0.17190D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    86  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691126411D+03  0.84426D+00  0.36710D+00  0.16179D+02  0.16457D+02 -0.19965D-01  0.31989D+00 -0.17347D+00 -0.17322D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    87  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691126418D+03  0.84428D+00  0.36709D+00  0.17077D+02  0.17548D+02 -0.19983D-01  0.31990D+00 -0.17355D+00 -0.17260D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    90  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691126422D+03  0.84427D+00  0.36709D+00  0.18784D+02  0.19624D+02 -0.19972D-01  0.31990D+00 -0.17346D+00 -0.17284D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    92  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691126422D+03  0.84427D+00  0.36709D+00  0.19114D+02  0.20025D+02 -0.19977D-01  0.31990D+00 -0.17352D+00 -0.17280D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    94  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691126423D+03  0.84427D+00  0.36709D+00  0.20944D+02  0.22249D+02 -0.19977D-01  0.31990D+00 -0.17348D+00 -0.17267D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    96  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2691126423D+03  0.84427D+00  0.36709D+00  0.20774D+02  0.22043D+02 -0.19977D-01  0.31990D+00 -0.17351D+00 -0.17277D+00



the function (fcn) has not improved by    0.10000D-06 after 3 steps which include a minimum - - -


therefore the run has been terminated
  -0.2691126423D+03  0.84427D+00  0.36709D+00  0.20774D+02  0.22043D+02 -0.19977D-01  0.31990D+00 -0.17351D+00 -0.17277D+00



all numbers of last entry refer to final pt. of run


the lowest value of the function (fcn) was  -0.2691126423D+03 for entry   96 - - x(i) follows
  0.84427E+00  0.36709E+00  0.20774E+02  0.22043E+02 -0.19977E-01  0.31990E+00 -0.17351E+00 -0.17277E+00



run statistics follow - -

 nfcn=   96 nst=   29


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL4       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.1207D+03  0.2585D+04  0.2253D+05 -0.2983D+06

REVE         0.8285D-02  0.1000D+01  0.2141D+02  0.1867D+03 -0.2471D+04

LANGFR       0.3869D-03  0.4670D-01  0.1000D+01  0.8716D+01 -0.1154D+03

UTIL4        0.4439D-04  0.5358D-02  0.1147D+00  0.1000D+01 -0.1324D+02

CONSTANT    -0.3353D-05 -0.4047D-03 -0.8666D-02 -0.7553D-01  0.1000D+01


FINAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T      STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                   (CONDIT.)        (CONDIT.)      (CONDIT.)                   DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)
                                                    (PAR = 0)      (PAR = 1)

POP           X1  0.1658733D-01  0.2852910D-01      0.5814181                -0.2306892D-08  0.3975446D+00      1.4261317
                                 0.1291639D-02     12.8420798                                0.3737234D+00      1.3247884

REVE          X1  0.7530773D-01  0.1191767D+00      0.6318999                -0.5604816D-09  0.4798300D+02      1.3839257
                                 0.8365871D-01      0.9001781                                0.5109686D+02      1.3548761

LANGFR        X2  0.8471029D+00  0.2629371D+01      0.3221695                -0.3986344D-10  0.1027523D+04      0.5100313
                                 0.3847429D+00      2.2017378                                0.1724892D+04      0.5171549

UTIL4         X3  0.2023957D+00  0.5237270D+00      0.3864528                -0.1118875D-10  0.8956041D+04      0.2075659
                                 0.1507162D+00      1.3428933                                0.2400631D+05      0.2203853

CONSTANT      X0 -0.6330801D+00  0.6195870D+01     -0.1021778                -0.1334291D-10 -0.1185723D+06     -0.8030154
                                 0.3509154D+01     -0.1804082                               -0.1274018D+06     -0.7863864

VAR(W)            0.1907436D+00  0.1714470D+00      1.1125513                 0.0000000D+00
                                 0.3091823D-01      6.1692911
 
RHO1      (E)     0.6880662D+00  0.1077111D+00      6.3880727                 0.2449225D-03
                                 0.9817451D-01      7.0086038
RHO2      (E)     0.3514427D+00  0.1026442D+00      3.4238910                 0.2950150D-03
                                 0.9537786D-01      3.6847407
PI1       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.4853624D+00      2.0603162      0.0000000  0.7685950D+01
                                 0.4638437D+00      2.1558985      0.0000000
PI2       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.6978226D+00      1.4330289      0.0000000  0.4598892D+01
                                 0.6379152D+00      1.5676065      0.0000000
 
LAM(Y)    (E)    -0.1997679D-01  0.4130270D-01     -0.4836680    -24.6951613  0.1711900D-03
LAM(X1)   (E)     0.3198999D+00  0.1403778D+00      2.2788503     -4.8447844 -0.4588325D-04
LAM(X2)   (E)    -0.1735085D+00  0.8832898D+00     -0.1964344     -1.3285656 -0.2234647D-05
LAM(X3)   (E)    -0.1727696D+00  0.1730716D+01     -0.0998255     -0.6776211 -0.1010083D-04


LOG-LIKELIHOOD = -0.1388749D+04

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.6815
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.6458

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.9717
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9685

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0008
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1596933D+06

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.5585831D-01
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1907436D+00
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.9118726D+00   Upper Bound =  0.8001560D+00


CPU TIME:      3.86 sec
